Stover’s Augmented Proximate Determinants of Fertility: A Regional Analysis In Pakistan

Qurra-tul-ain Ali Sheikh


The significant drop of fertility levels is a recognized fact in Pakistan, however; regional disparities are yet observed, that is conditioned to ruling unequal growth of regions and its consequence in local demographic condition. The current study emphasizes regional appraisal of direct determinants of fertility reduction, as a means for quality understanding the projected population problems. Stover augmented model (1998) is being employed to analyze the effects of sexual activity, contraception, induced abortion, post-partum infertility and secondary sterility on different fertility levels, using three data sets of Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys, 1990-91, 2006-07 and 2012-13. In early 90, secondary sterility showed higher inhibiting effects but afterwards; its value increased gradually, putting lesser weight on fertility levels. Sexual activity and post-partum infertility came out as other highly contributing factors whereas, contraception and induced abortion; though increased over time comparatively showed less influence on fertility drop. The study suggests that in prevailing orthodoxy Muslim society; free dialogues on women’s reproductive health and family planning should be supported via government movement. Furthermore; for directing and promoting population cut spouses should give the confidence to go for sterilization after reaching preferred family size.


Total Fertility Rate, Proximate determinants of fertility, Bongaarts fertility Model (1978), Stover’s augmented fertility model (1998), Regional disparities, Pakistan

Full Text:



African Population and Policy Research Center (APPRC) (1998). Fertility decline in Kenya: level, trends and differentials (Nairobi, Population Council, African Population and Policy Research Center).

Blacker, J. (2002). Kenya’s fertility transition: how low will it go?. In United Nations, Completing the fertility transition (New York, United Nations).

Bongaarts, J. (1978). A framework for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility. Population and Development Review, 4(1), 105-132.

Bongaarts, J. and Potter, R. G. (1983). Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An analysis of the proximate determinants. San Diego, California: Academic Press, Inc.

Bongaarts, J. (1984). The Fertility Inhibiting Effects of Intermediate Fertility Variables. Studies in Family Planning, 13(7), 179-189.

Brass, W. and Jolly, C. (1993). Population dynamics of Kenya (Washington D. C., National Academy Press).

Casterline, J. B., Cleland, J. and Singh, S. (1983). The proximate determinants of fertility: cross- national and sub-national variations. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Pittsburgh.

Cleland, J. G. and Chidambaram, V. C. (1981). The contribution of the World Fertility Survey to an understanding of the fertility determinants and trends. Paper presented at the General Meeting of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Manila.

Cross, A., Walter, R. and Kizito, P. (1991). Evidence of transition to lower fertility in Kenya. International Family Planning Perspectives, 17(1), 4-7.

Davis, K. and Blake, J. (1956). Social structure and fertility: An analytic framework. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 4(4), 211-235.

De Bruijn, B. (2006). Fertility: Theories, Framework, Models, and Concepts. The Netherlands: Netherland interdisciplinary demographic institute.

Ericksen, K. and Brunnette, T. (1996) ‘Patterns and predictors of infertility among African women: a cross-national survey of 27 nations’, Social Science and Medicine

(2), 209-220.

García, B., & Rojas, O. L. (2002). Cambios en la formación y disolución de las uniones en América Latina. Papeles de población, 8(32), 11-30.

González Galbán, H., Palma, Y., & Montes, M. D. L. (2007). Análisis regional de los determinantes próximos de la fecundidad en México. Papeles de población, 13(51), 213-245.

Hobcraft, J. and Little, R. J. A (1984). Fertility exposure analysis: a new method for assessing the contribution of proximate determinants to fertility differentials. Population Studies. 38(1), 21-45.

Frank, O. (2008). The demography of fertility and infertility. Reproductive Health, Geneva Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Geneva, Switzerland, World Health Organization.

Kalule-Sabiti, I. (1984). Bongaarts’ proximate determinants of fertility applied to group data from the Kenya fertility survey 1977/78. Journal of Biosocial Science, 16(2), 205-218.

Ministry of Population Welfare (2002). Population policy of Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan: Ministry of Population Welfare.

National Institute of Population Studies (1990-91, 2006-07 and 2012-13). Pakistan and Macro International Inc. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, Islamabad, Pakistan: National Institute of Population Studies and Macro International Inc.

National Council for Population Development (NCPD) (1989). Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 1989 (Nairobi, Ministry of Planning and National Development).

Macrae, S. M., Bauni, E. K., and Blacker, J. G. C. (2001). Fertility trends and policy in Kenya. In Zaba, B and Blacker, J. (eds) Brass tacks: essays in medical demography: a tribute to the memory of Professor William Brass (London, Athlone Press).

OJEDA, Norma, 1993, «Consecuencias de la crisis económica en el vínculo matrimonial en México», in Cambios en el perfil de las familias: la experiencia regional, ECLAC, Santiago de Chile.

Priskorn, L., Holmboe, S., Jacobsen, R., Jensen, T. K., Lassen, T. H. and Skakkebaek, N. E. (2012). Increasing trends in childlessness in recent birth cohorts: A registry based study of the total Danish male population born from 1945 to 1980. International Journal of Andrology, 35(3), 449-455.

Palloni, A. (1984). Assessing the effects of intermediate variables on birth interval-specific measures of fertility. Population Index, 23(1), 31-52.

Reinis, K. (1992). The impact of the proximate determinants of fertility: evaluating Bongaarts and Hobcraft and Little’s methods of estimation. Population Studies, 46(2), 309-326.

Sathar, Z. and Casterline, J. (1998). The Onset of Fertility Transition in Pakistan. Population and Development Review, 24(4), 773-796.

Sheikh, Q. A. (2019). Bongaarts proximate determinants of fertility model: A region based analysis in Pakistan. International Journal of Education and Social Science Research, 2(1), 116-136

Stover, J. (1998). Revising the Proximate Determinants of Fertility Framework: What have we learned in the past 20 Years? Studies in Family Planning, 29(3), 255-267.

Worldometers (2018), Pakistan population

Wood, W. J. (1994). Dynamics of human reproduction: biology, biometry, demography (New York, Aldine De Gruyter).



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2020 International Journal of Experiential Learning & Case Studies

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.